Analyzed: May 23, 2026 · 15 promises tracked
| Promise | Deadline | Verdict | Evidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI committed to spending $300 billion on Oracle's infrastructure over roughly five years | approximately 5 years starting in 2027 | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| OpenAI committed to spending $300 billion on Oracle's infrastructure over roughly five years, starting in 2027 | approximately 2032 (5 years from 2027) | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| OpenAI committed to spending $300 billion on Oracle's infrastructure over roughly five years, starting in 2027 | 2027-2032 (5 years from 2027) | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| OpenAI will achieve AGI within the next few years | end of 2025 | ❓ Unclear | No clear evidence that OpenAI achieved AGI by end of 2025; Nvidia's 2026 claim of AGI exists but lacks consensus definition and OpenAI's own achievement status remains undefined. | 🔗 Source |
| GPT-5 will be significantly more capable than GPT-4 | mid 2025 | ✅ Kept | GPT-5 was released by mid-2025 with multiple sources confirming it offers upgrades and improvements over GPT-4, fulfilling the promise of being significantly more capable. | 🔗 Source |
| Oracle agreed to build out 4.5 gigawatts of AI data centre capacity across the US | roughly five years starting in 2027 | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| Stargate to create 100,000 jobs | coming years (unspecified) | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| Stargate joint venture to invest up to $500 billion in AI infrastructure | in the coming years | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| OpenAI will release an open source model | early 2025 | ❓ Unclear | The provided evidence does not contain specific information about whether OpenAI released an open source model by early 2025. | 🔗 Source |
| OpenAI will reach $1 billion in revenue | end of 2024 | ✅ Kept | OpenAI's ARR exceeded $20 billion in 2025, far surpassing the $1 billion revenue target for end of 2024. | 🔗 Source |
| Stargate joint venture to invest up to $500 billion in AI infrastructure in the coming years | coming years (no specific date) | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| Stargate to create 100,000 jobs | coming years (no specific date) | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| Stargate joint venture to invest up to $500 billion for AI infrastructure in the coming years | coming years (unspecified) | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| Stargate to create 100,000 jobs | in the coming years | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| Nvidia would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI and build 10 gigawatts of computing infrastructure | unspecified | ❌ Broken | The $100 billion infrastructure investment deal between Nvidia and OpenAI was announced but has been placed 'on ice' with Nvidia's CEO privately downplaying the likelihood of the original deal being finalized. | 🔗 Source |