Analyzed: May 23, 2026 · 13 promises tracked
| Promise | Deadline | Verdict | Evidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Put a man on Mars with arrival | 2025 | ❌ Broken | No human was put on Mars by 2025; web evidence from 2026 shows SpaceX shifted focus to lunar goals instead, and a Mashable article documents Elon Musk's failed 2025 promises. | 🔗 Source |
| AGI would arrive | 2025 | ❌ Broken | AGI did not arrive by the 2025 deadline; the web evidence shows Musk making new AGI claims in March 2026, indicating the 2025 promise was not fulfilled. | 🔗 Source |
| AGI arrival | 2025 | ❌ Broken | The web evidence shows articles from 2026 discussing AGI predictions and Musk's claims, but no evidence that AGI actually arrived by the 2025 deadline, indicating the promise was not kept. | 🔗 Source |
| Major rebound for Tesla in 2025 | 2025 | ❌ Broken | The first source explicitly states Tesla fell behind its biggest rival from China in 2025 instead of experiencing a major rebound as promised, and the third source reports Tesla sales continued plunging in Europe despite the prediction. | 🔗 Source |
| Put a man on Mars | 2025 | ❌ Broken | Elon Musk did not put a man on Mars by 2025; instead, SpaceX shifted focus to building a moon city, making the deadline impossible to meet. | 🔗 Source |
| Put a man on Mars with arrival on the planet | 2025 | ❌ Broken | No humans have been put on Mars by 2025; evidence from 2026 shows NASA is still working on lunar missions and SpaceX has shifted focus to a moon city rather than Mars arrival. | 🔗 Source |
| Back primary challengers to any Republicans who supported Trump's megabill | unspecified | ⚠️ Partial | Evidence shows Musk made the pledge and at least one Trump-backed primary challenger defeated a Republican critic (Massie), but insufficient evidence to confirm Musk actively backed multiple primary challengers or that all such challenges were Musk-supported. | 🔗 Source |
| Establish an 'efficiency commission' with Elon Musk at the helm if elected | if elected | ✅ Kept | President Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with Elon Musk as co-head in November 2024, fulfilling the campaign promise to create an efficiency commission led by Musk. | 🔗 Source |
| Send an Optimus robot to Mars on a SpaceX Starship | 2026 | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| Limited external sales of Tesla Optimus by late 2026 | late 2026 | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| Broader availability of Tesla Optimus in 2027 | 2027 | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |
| Tesla Optimus long-term consumer price target under $20,000 | unspecified | ❓ Unclear | The evidence shows Tesla Optimus Gen 2 has a $20-30K target price range, which does not meet the under $20,000 promise, but the robot has not been released to consumers yet and final pricing remains uncertain. | 🔗 Source |
| Convert Fremont factory to produce 1 million Optimus robots annually by end of 2026 | end of 2026 | ⏳ Pending | Deadline not yet reached | 🔗 Source |